CPI Tracker — Capitol Whale

CPI Tracker — Live US Inflation Data

Topic: cpi tracker

Last updated 2026-08-12 · Capitol Whale research

What it is. cpi tracker: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the average change in prices US urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. Headline CPI includes food and energy; core CPI excludes both to strip volatility. It's the single most market-moving economic release in the US calendar.

How to read it. Watch year-over-year (YoY) headline and core, and month-over-month (MoM) core annualized. The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation, but CPI moves the tape more because it comes out first (mid-month, 8:30 AM ET) and feeds into TIPS, Social Security COLA, and CPI-linked derivatives. Shelter and services ex-shelter ('supercore') are the stickiest components.

Why it matters. CPI prints are the primary input to Fed policy expectations. A 0.1% miss or beat vs consensus regularly moves 2Y yields 10-15 bps and SPX 1-2% in the first minute. Rate traders position via SOFR futures and Fed funds futures; equity traders watch the reaction in duration-sensitive sectors (tech, REITs, utilities).

Frequently asked

When is CPI released?

Monthly, typically mid-month at 8:30 AM ET, covering the prior month's data. The BLS publishes the schedule a year in advance. It's usually the second Tuesday-Thursday of the month.

What's the difference between CPI and PCE?

CPI (BLS) is a fixed basket. PCE (BEA) uses a chain-weighted basket that adjusts for consumer substitution and includes a broader scope (e.g., healthcare paid by insurers). PCE runs ~30 bps below CPI on average; the Fed targets PCE.

What is core CPI?

Core CPI excludes food and energy prices, which are volatile and often driven by supply shocks rather than underlying demand. Core is a better read on persistent inflation and is what the Fed watches most closely alongside PCE.